Sunday, September 23, 2012

Obama up in battleground polls

President Barack Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on Thursday, September 13. Obama returned to Washington after a two-day campaign trip with events in Nevada and Colorado. <a href='http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/world/photography/index.html' target='_blank'>See more of CNN's best photography</a>.President Barack Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on Thursday, September 13. Obama returned to Washington after a two-day campaign trip with events in Nevada and Colorado. See more of CNN's best photography.
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney shakes hands with supporters during a Juntos Con Romney Rally at the Darwin Fuchs Pavilion on Wednesday, September 19, in Miami.Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney shakes hands with supporters during a Juntos Con Romney Rally at the Darwin Fuchs Pavilion on Wednesday, September 19, in Miami.
Supporters wait for Romney to speak at a campaign rally at Lake Erie College in Painesville, Ohio, on Friday.Supporters wait for Romney to speak at a campaign rally at Lake Erie College in Painesville, Ohio, on Friday.
A crew member opens the door to Air Force One after the jet arrived at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York on Tuesday.A crew member opens the door to Air Force One after the jet arrived at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York on Tuesday.
President Barack Obama, first lady Michelle Obama and Vice President Joe Biden pose for a photograph with members of the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams at the White House on Friday in Washington. The U.S. team brought home 104 medals, 46 of them gold, from the Games in London.President Barack Obama, first lady Michelle Obama and Vice President Joe Biden pose for a photograph with members of the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams at the White House on Friday in Washington. The U.S. team brought home 104 medals, 46 of them gold, from the Games in London.
Olympic swimming silver medalist Jimmy Feigen, left, is greeted by Obama and Vice President Joe Biden on the South Lawn to welcome the 2012 U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams on Friday.Olympic swimming silver medalist Jimmy Feigen, left, is greeted by Obama and Vice President Joe Biden on the South Lawn to welcome the 2012 U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams on Friday.
U.S. Marines stand around a casket during the transfer of remains ceremony marking the return to the United States of the remains of the four Americans killed in an attack this week in Benghazi, Libya, at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on Friday. U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens died along with three other Americans in the assault on the consular building in Benghazi on September 11.U.S. Marines stand around a casket during the transfer of remains ceremony marking the return to the United States of the remains of the four Americans killed in an attack this week in Benghazi, Libya, at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on Friday. U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens died along with three other Americans in the assault on the consular building in Benghazi on September 11.
Four hearses carrying caskets leave the hangar during the Transfer of Remains Ceremony for the return of the four Libyan embassy employees on Friday at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.Four hearses carrying caskets leave the hangar during the Transfer of Remains Ceremony for the return of the four Libyan embassy employees on Friday at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.
Intern Chris Jobson of the Senate Democratic Media Center signs the condolence book for Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens at the U.S. Capitol on Friday in Washington.Intern Chris Jobson of the Senate Democratic Media Center signs the condolence book for Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens at the U.S. Capitol on Friday in Washington.
Burmese opposition politician Aung San Suu Kyi, center, is presented with a U.S. Congressional Gold Medal by Speaker of the House John Boehner, left, as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, second left, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, right, look on during a presentation ceremony at the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday in Washington. Aung San Suu Kyi was presented with the medal for her leadership and commitment to human rights and for promoting freedom, peace and democracy in Myanmar, also known as Burma. Burmese opposition politician Aung San Suu Kyi, center, is presented with a U.S. Congressional Gold Medal by Speaker of the House John Boehner, left, as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, second left, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, right, look on during a presentation ceremony at the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday in Washington. Aung San Suu Kyi was presented with the medal for her leadership and commitment to human rights and for promoting freedom, peace and democracy in Myanmar, also known as Burma.
Obama and David Letterman speak during a break in the taping of the "Late Show with David Letterman" at the Ed Sullivan Theater on Tuesday in New York.Obama and David Letterman speak during a break in the taping of the "Late Show with David Letterman" at the Ed Sullivan Theater on Tuesday in New York.
Romney boards his plane in Cleveland before taking off for Boston on Friday.Romney boards his plane in Cleveland before taking off for Boston on Friday.
Attendees sing the National Anthem during The Family Research Council Action Values Voter Summit on Friday in Washington. The summit is an annual political conference for U.S. social conservative activists and elected officials.Attendees sing the National Anthem during The Family Research Council Action Values Voter Summit on Friday in Washington. The summit is an annual political conference for U.S. social conservative activists and elected officials.
A native of Lebanon, Mirna Mumm uses a U.S. flag to hold her hair in place after becoming one of 215 new citizens during a ceremony at the National Archives on Monday in Washington. The ceremony was held on the 225th anniversary of the signing of the U.S. Constitution.A native of Lebanon, Mirna Mumm uses a U.S. flag to hold her hair in place after becoming one of 215 new citizens during a ceremony at the National Archives on Monday in Washington. The ceremony was held on the 225th anniversary of the signing of the U.S. Constitution.
Vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan arrives on stage to address The Family Research Council Action Values Voter Summit on Friday.Vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan arrives on stage to address The Family Research Council Action Values Voter Summit on Friday.
NYPD arrests protesters affiliated with Occupy Wall Street as they attempt to form a "Peoples Wall" to block Wall Street on the one-year anniversary of Occupy on Monday in New York. NYPD arrests protesters affiliated with Occupy Wall Street as they attempt to form a "Peoples Wall" to block Wall Street on the one-year anniversary of Occupy on Monday in New York.
From left to right: Mitt Romney, his wife Ann, and son Tagg watch one of Tagg's sons play soccer in Belmont, Massachusetts, on Saturday.From left to right: Mitt Romney, his wife Ann, and son Tagg watch one of Tagg's sons play soccer in Belmont, Massachusetts, on Saturday.
Supporters cheer as they listen to Romney speak during a Juntos Con Romney Rally at the Darwin Fuchs Pavilion on Wednesday in Miami. <a href='http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/world/photography/index.html'>See more of CNN's best photography</a>.Supporters cheer as they listen to Romney speak during a Juntos Con Romney Rally at the Darwin Fuchs Pavilion on Wednesday in Miami. See more of CNN's best photography.
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  • Obama holds advantage in polls in several key battleground states
  • Romney sees being tied with incumbent president as advantage for challenger
  • Romney must win all the states McCain won in 2008 and a half dozen that Obama won
  • GOP strategist: Romney has been resilient, must show voters he can get back on his feet

Washington (CNN) -- With the conventions fading into the rearview mirror and the first presidential debate fast approaching, new polls in crucial swing states suggest that GOP nominee Mitt Romney's road to the White House is becoming a more challenging ride.

Polls are a snapshot of how people feel right now. The election is still 6½ weeks away, with three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate between now and then that have the potential to change people's minds. But the numbers in many of these new surveys seem to favor President Barack Obama over Romney.

"Throughout the spring and summer, Romney advisers would look at the mostly dead-even polls and tell me, 'I'd a lot rather be in our position than theirs,'" said CNN chief political correspondent Candy Crowley. "They don't say that now, not because it's over -- clearly whatever edge the president has can be erased. They don't say that anymore because as fall opens, advantage Obama."

CNN's Polling Center

Romney was asked about the new surveys in an interview Friday that will appear on CBS's "60 Minutes" on Sunday.

"Actually, we're tied in the polls. We're all within a margin of error. We bounce around week to week, day to day. There are some days we're up. There are some days we're down," Romney said. "We've got a campaign which is tied with an incumbent president of the United States."

To win the White House, Romney needs to win all the states that Sen. John McCain carried in 2008, plus grab back about half a dozen that Obama turned from red to blue four years ago.

Romney campaigned Thursday in Florida, where two nonpartisan live operator polls conducted over the past two weeks both indicate Obama has a five-point advantage, which is within the surveys' sampling errors. Both the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist and Fox News polls have the race at 49%-44%. Other, partisan surveys released since the end of the Democratic convention suggest a closer contest. Florida's 29 electoral votes are the biggest catch of the nine or so battleground states that both campaigns are heavily contesting.

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In Ohio, an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll and a Fox News survey each have the president holding a seven-point lead, while an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a two-point edge, well within that poll's sampling error.

And in Virginia, a Washington Post poll indicates Obama leading by eight points, while a Fox News survey shows the president up by seven. According to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll, Obama holds a four-point advantage, which is within that survey's sampling error.

President George W. Bush won all three of those states in his 2004 re-election, but Obama painted them blue four years ago.

In Wisconsin, home of Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, a Marquette Law School poll indicates the Democratic ticket with a 14-point lead over the Republican duo. But a Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll indicates a smaller six-point advantage for the president, and Obama is up by five points in an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll.

Obama stumps in surprise battleground state

In Michigan, the state where Romney was born and where his father served as a popular two-term governor in the 1960s, a CNN/ORC International poll released on Wednesday indicated Obama up by eight points. An EPIC/MRA survey released the week before suggested the president was up by 10.

Both Wisconsin and Michigan are states Democrats have long carried in presidential elections that the Romney campaign hopes to capture.

New polls in two other battleground states, Colorado and Nevada (won by Bush in 2004 but by Obama in 2008), indicate much closer contests.

"For a campaign running one to two points behind, close polls are interesting in the spring and summer. They are worrisome in the fall," said Crowley, anchor of CNN's "State of the Union." "The good news for the Romney campaign is every and any place the president is polling below 50% -- not a comfortable position for an incumbent."

Former President Bill Clinton, who has campaigned for Obama and gave a blockbuster speech at the Democrats' convention, says the race is far from over.

"I still think you have to assume it's going to be a close race, assume it's a hard fight and then fight through it," Clinton said in an interview with Fareed Zakaria on CNN. "But I think the president has the advantage now. We did have a very good convention. He got a good boost out of it."

Clinton: '47 percent' comments put 'heavier burden' on Romney in debates

Romney's campaign has struggled since the conventions.

The release of secretly recorded video from a May fundraiser, in which Romney casts Obama supporters as dependent on government, dominated coverage of the race over the past week.

And the week before, there was criticism in the media and even by some Republicans of Romney's response to the attacks against U.S. embassies in Egypt and Libya.

But Republican strategist and CNN contributor Alex Castellanos says Romney has already proved this cycle that he can make a comeback.

"Despite the toughest two weeks of this campaign for Mitt Romney, these state polls tell us two things: One, this is still a jump ball; two, Obama has gotten slightly taller."

"Romney has proven resilient throughout this campaign," said Castellanos, a senior media adviser to Romney's 2008 campaign. "Now he's being tested again. He has to show voters he has presidential strength, the capacity to get back on his feet after being knocked down."

And Romney has 6½ weeks to do that.

Romney, Ryan in fighting shape